NASA astronaut Nick Hague of the ISS took this photo of Hurricane Dorian’s eye.
NASA / Nick Hague
Barry. Dorian. Humberto. Lorenzo. The Atlantic hurricane season last year was devastating. The bad news is that stronger hurricanes are part of an ongoing trend.
Hurricanes are getting windier. This sobering result comes from a study by the scientist of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), James Kossin, from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The paper appeared in the Proceedings of the journal of the National Academy of Sciences On Monday.
The study looked at satellite data from 1979 to 2017 and found that the maximum sustained winds from tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) grew stronger over time. “Through modeling and our understanding of the physics of the atmosphere, the study agrees with what we would expect in a warming climate like ours.” Kossin said in a press release from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The data indicate an increased likelihood that tropical cyclones will become larger storms that reach categories 3, 4, or 5 Saffir-Simpson wind scale. For example, Hurricane Dorian hit the Bahamas in late 2019 as a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of at least 252 km / h.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1st and NOAA will announce its first outlook for the season later this week. Last year the NOAA predicted an almost normal season, but the definition of normal appears to be changing, and “normal” can still be fatal.
Kossin has been tracking hurricane data for years. He led one 2018 study found hurricanes slowed down, increasing local rainfall and flooding.
The new study suggests that increasingly intense tropical cyclones could actually be linked to climate change. “It is a good step forward and increases our confidence that global warming has made hurricanes stronger,” said Kossin, “but our results do not tell us exactly how much of the trends are caused by human activity and how much is only natural Variability can be. ”